While this article is aimed mostly
at players who haven’t been playing
long, it will also be a big help to
those of you who have played awhile
and are not sure why you are losing
– or are at least not winning a lot.
Whether you play (or want to play)
online poker or other casino games,
this article will introduce you to
vital aspects of gambling such as
odds, probabilities, payback
percentages, house edge and
expectation.
This article will get you in touch
with understanding why casinos make
so much money and why players
usually leave them with less money
than they had when they walked in or
logged on to them. This article will
show you the fundamental concepts
that are necessary for you to become
an informed and knowledgeable casino
game player. This article will not
be full of promises on how to beat
the casino, but it will be filled
with information that can help you
gain full authority over your game
play.
To gain full understanding of these
concepts you will need basic math
skills, but you won’t have to be a
genius either. Most of the readers
of this article on becoming a better
player will be enlightened at the
end. Once you grasp these concepts,
you may not be able to recite the
specifics of every single bet out
there, but you will have a sense of
better understanding as to what you
want to know about each bet.
If you want to at least feel
like a genius, you need to know is
how to cope with your surroundings
when playing casino games and have a
sense of your environment.
This article is to get you to
understand how to play casino games
(including online poker) on an
intelligent manor. It will help you
increase your ability as a gambler.
Honestly, it is you against the
casino and an informed player is the
toughest customer.
Understanding odds and probability
When you discuss gambling and online
poker, you inescapably discuss odds.
Some of you may already know that
odds are based probability.
Probability is part of mathematics,
it is utilized in many parts of our
lives, not just online poker and
gambling. Probability and odds are
an essential part of mathematics and
is used in gambling and the analysis
of gambling.
Probability is the formal study of
chance and laws. Basically, it
measures how often things happen –
or can be expected to happen. There
are some probabilities that we can’t
be certain of – but those in the
know try to. Some happenings occur
without the mathematical mechanisms
where we know all the possible
outcomes. But in gambling, we do
know all the possible outcomes, so
it is easier to predict the odds in
casino games with accuracy.
Probability is the likelihood that a
specific event will happen. It
measures the number of ways that
event can happen compared to the
total number of total outcomes.
Here is a simple example: The
probability of you picking a spade
out of a 52 card deck is 25%. There
are 52 cards in the deck and 13 of
them are spades. This means that ¼
of the cards are spades. There you
have it – 25%.
The odds
Once you understand the probability
of an event occurring, the next step
is think in terms of the odds of
that event. If probability describes
the connection between a preferred
event and all possible events – the
odds describe the connection between
a preferred event and all
non-preferred events.
For all intents and purposes, odds
are typically considered to be the
odds against a certain event
taking place. When you first start
to play any casino game this is
probably the first thing you will be
interested in.
Let’s consider the example we just
gave you about picking a spade out
of a deck of cards. You know it is
25% - the probability of you picking
a spade out of a full deck of cards
is 25%. Therefore, the true odds
against this event (picking a spade)
are 3 to 1. Basically, you have 3
chances to fail and 1 chance to
succeed. Many of you are probably
wondering – aren’t there 52 cards
in the deck? What exactly does
3 to 1 mean? 3 to 1 is the reduced
fraction of 39 (number of non
spades) to 13 (total number of
spades).
Now, not all odds will be simply
something to 1. But, any
probability can be expressed as
odds.
Casino Odds
True odds,
which are based on the actual
probability of a chance event
happening, are rarely seen in casino
games. If so, over the long run, the
casino wouldn’t make its profit.
Casino odds show you what you should
expect to get paid for your wager.
If the casino’s odds are 2 to 1 and
you win, that means for every one
unit bet, you will get two units
back along with your original wager.
So, if you wagered one dollar on a 2
to 1 bet and win, you would get a
two dollar profit plus the one
dollar you originally wagered.
An even money bet is a bet
with odds of 1 to 1. A $1 even money
bet you win gets you one dollar plus
your original wager of one dollar.
The
casino’s advantage
Now that you have an idea as to the
meaning of odds and probability, you
are probably getting itchy to get
out and gamble or hit the online
poker tables. There are a few more
things for you to take into
consideration when wanting to become
a better casino game player.
Understanding what we just went
over, you have to still wonder how
the casino manages to make so much
money from you. Probability and true
odds let you know what to expect in
a fair atmosphere, but casinos are
not necessarily fair atmospheres.
The basic reason money moves from
casino player’s bank rolls to the
casino’s bank roll is because
casinos don’t pay what they should
based on odds and probability.
Casinos are not cheating, the games
are not rigged. They don’t even have
to bank on foolish players or
unlucky players – they are banking
on math and the amount of money they
pay based on probability and odds.
Expectation
The easiest way to exemplify
expectation quickly is to say this:
Say someone offers to play a game
with you - a simple coin toss.
Assuming the coin is not rigged or
unfair, your chances of winning each
toss are 50/50. Over the long run,
you will win half of the time. The
expectation of this game is then
zero. You won’t win any and you
won’t lose any based on expectation.
Now, don’t think that your favorite
casino is going to offer you a game
like this. In a casino, the same
game would probably go like this: If
you call the coin result correctly,
you win 90 cents. If you call it
wrong – you lose a buck. Already,
you know this is bad right? What
exactly is your expectation for this
game then? See, expectation tells
you how much you can expect to win
or lose on your wager over the long
run. In order to figure out how much
you can expect to win (or lose) on a
particular wager, you need to look
at the probability of both the
winning and losing outcomes along
with the financial gain and loss
that comes with each.
Serious gamblers and online poker
players will go on and on about
expectation. This is because
expectation is a big part of your
smart game play. Expectation lets
you know what you should plan on
getting back from playing a casino
game (or certain wager) in the long
term. You can use expectation as
your best standard of any casino
game’s value or you can simply adapt
expectation to an even more
recognized phrase - house edge.
House edge
Also known as house advantage
and a few other similar terms, house
edge is the most frequently used
meter of the worth of any game or
wager. The higher the house edge,
the bigger the advantage the casino
has.
Very simply put, house edge is a
conversion of expectation into a
percentage. How is this done you
ask? It is always the best idea to
look at the numbers in the easiest
form, so you divide the expectation
by the total amount wagered to get
your expected outcome per dollar
wager.
The house edge does not always come
about from the casino paying les
than true odds. Other methods
include advantage present in the
rules – like when a player busts
before the dealer plays in blackjack
– or commissions on winning wagers –
like with baccarat.
Thinking about the house edge
The number crunching can give us a
solid sense of how much of an
advantage the house has players.
Just do not lose sight of what the
edge really tells you – the casino
is exercising its advantage not when
you lose, but when you win. In most
casino games, the house edge drains
you on your winnings, not on your
losses. Why is this you ask? Because
you are not a getting fair
Payout on your winning bets. In the
long term, your money will not even
out because of the small or unfair
payouts on your winning bets. That
is how the casinos are making money
– it is the secret tax of the
casinos. Very few casino game
players understand or appreciate
this fact. They worry so much over
their losing streaks and not enough
about the short payouts they get
when they do win. These short
payouts are what is causing them to
be unable to play even with the
house.
While we can all agree that winning
is always better than losing, none
of us can win all the time. If we
did win all of the time -meaning
every hand, spin or roll of the
dice, we would not even care about
getting true odds or good odds. But,
the reality and probability of
casino games insists that you lose
some and you win some. Think of it
this way – say there is a casino
game that you are playing and it
offers only two wagers – you bet
both of them – you will end up
losing. You won’t be even. This is
because the winning wager, which
must occur since there are only two
wagers, will not pay what it should.
The losing wager is irrelevant.
This whole understanding of house
odds is vital to becoming a smarter
casino game player. You are not
fighting the house in some sort of
guessing game where your failed
hunches or bad timing leave you
floundering. You are simply fighting
the house in a numbers game that is
meant to prevent you from winning in
the long run.
The house edge and the grind
So, now that you understand the
injustice that is involved with the
house edge and payouts for winning
bets, you are better equipped to
understand the next bit of bad news.
Many of you may be thinking that if
the game you want to play has a
house edge of 5% and you log in to
an online casino site or whatever
playing with $100, that you are only
expected to lose $5. This seems okay
for a session of entertainment where
you may even win right? Well, not so
fast.
That whole theory is far from air
tight. In our explanation of house
edge, you will remember that we told
you the house edge (in this case 5%)
is based on your action,
not your play ($100). So, it
isn’t just based on your bank roll
(in this case it is $100). See, your
bank roll will provide more money to
be played than just itself. This is
because you won’t lose all the time
and you will often be re-betting
your winnings, a $100 bank roll
could result in as much as $1000
betting action. This is the
grind - it is the constant betting
and re-betting of your bank roll and
it grinds your bankroll down. Most
casino game players recycle their
money back into their games. The
more you play, the more the house
edge can erode your bank roll.
All in all
All in all many of you may think
this all sounds too theoretical. You
are probably thinking wins or losses
in normal playing sessions won’t
come out looking anything like we
predicted mathematically. You know
that any wager, no matter how bad
the odds are, pays off sometimes.
This is totally true – and you are
right. This is why we have always
specified in the long run
during this article, because in the
short run, you can expect your money
to shoot up and down like a roller
coaster. Any casino game player can
win money during any given gaming
session, but over enough sessions or
time, things will end up as we said
before.
This in mind, try playing at your
favorite online poker room today to
see if you can put this advice into
action for you. Gambling is just
what it says – gambling. As long as
you understand these few concepts,
you can at least know you are a
better player at heart. This article
is not meant to depress you or scare
you from playing. Many people get
rich every single day gambling, if
you are a smarter player – you can
too.
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